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Msg#: 13635
From: qtrader (mike kehoe)
To: qtrader (mike kehoe)
Date Posted: April 02, 2001 at 23:59:30
Subject: Another example from Hays Market Focus

Here's another example of a "smart money" chart/index from Don Hays.

=====================================
Comments updated: March 21, 2001

"I first read of this Smart Money Index in Barrons in the months following the 1987 crash. It had called that crash with a lead time of several months, but I had long forgotten it, until one of my subscribers, Wally Hertler started to send me his charts in 1998 that he had been laboriously keeping for all those years."

And so on at the link.

• Don Hays Market Focus article & chart

Msg#: 17039
From: stanharley (Stan Harley)
To: humble1 (daniel watkins)
Date Posted: April 11, 2001 at 13:30:35
Subject: Signals for an Intermediate Market Bottom

Mary Thompson called me twice on Monday to solicit my thoughts for the CNBC series running this week entitled “Finding a Market Bottom.” It has been airing at 3:15-3:18 pm Eastern time each day this week.

I know she has interviewed a number of people for her report, but with only 3 minutes per day of air time, she’s under a tight time-budget as you can see.

I brought 5 items to her attention that I am focusing on for confirmation of an intermediate market low:

1) Assessing the intermediate trend, I believe, is best reflected in a 20 week moving average. Nothing truly bullish, I told her, can get underway while the 20 week M.A. is still heading downward. Time is needed to arrest the downward momentum and turn the intermediate trend back to the upside.
2) Analysis of breadth figures: A) I look for important divergences between the New York Composite (NYA) Index and the NYSE Composite Advance/Decline Line. It is noteworthy that, while the DJIA, S&P, and NYA pushed to new lows on March 22, 2001 relative to their 18-Oct-00 lows, the A/D Line failed to confirm that low. That divergence reflects a lessening of selling pressure. B) Although the A/D Line appears enlightening on a relative basis, a 10/30 day M.A. of the net difference between advances and declines reflects a market that is, in my judgement, not sufficiently oversold as yet to establish an intermediate market bottom.
3) Sentiment. I keep track of a number of sentiment figures. I especially like those supplied by Investors Intelligence (reported each day in Investors’ Business Daily). Monday’s readings were: 48.9% Bulls, 38.3% Bears. I like to rearrange the raw data thusly: ( % Bulls) / (% Bulls + % Bears) = (48.9) / (48.9 + 38.3) = .56. Although sentiment indictors are not particularly good timing indicators, most of the significant intermediate bottoms of the last 30 years have seen this figure below .40.
4) The 24.25 week intermediate cycle. Past bottoms in this cycle: 18-Oct-00L, 14-Apr-00L, 18-Oct-99L, 20-Apr-99L, and 08-Oct-98.
5) Blast off after the bottom - Will provide the confirmation.

Further analysis of my views will be discussed in my newsletter going out to subscribers later this week.

Stan Harley
The Harley Market Letter

Msg#: 19205
From: michael (Michael Henry)
To: ALL
Date Posted: April 18, 2001 at 09:29:30
Subject: Bored with the Bull's futile attempts ? Try 2nd order fibonacci's

Why NOT add the 2nd order fibonacci sequence to your arsenal. I don't know if these series are in use elsewhere or have a different name. I call them 2nd order. However, as you will see, there really is only a 1st order and a 2nd order fibonacci series. All of the higher orders are multiplicative combinations of these first two orders. (You should copy and paste into a wordpad or some such for it to be lined up and clear).

1st order fibonacci series: 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610 987 ...

2nd order fibonacci series: 3 4 7 11 18 29 47 76 123 199 322 521 943 1464 ...

3rd order fibonacci series: 10 15 25 40 65 105 170 275 445 720 1165 1885 ...

To derive the 2nd order fibonacci series from the 1st order series, add the fibo on each side of any fibo to get a multiplicative component of the fibo x sequences ahead when multiplied by the fibo in between, as such:

2 + 1 = 3 1 (middle fibo) times the sum of fibo on each side, or 3 = 3
3 + 1 = 4 2 (middle fibo) times the sum of fibo on each side, or 4 = 8
5 + 2 = 7 3 (middle fibo) times the sum of fibo on each side, or 7 = 21
8 + 3 = 11 5 (middle fibo) times the sum of fibo on each side of, or 11 = 55
13 + 5 = 18 8 (middle fibo) times the sum on each side, or 18 = 144
21 + 8 = 29 13 (middle fibo) times the sum, or 29 = 377
34 + 13 = 47 21 (middle fibo) times the sum, or 47 = 987
55 + 21 = 76 34 (middle fibo) times the sum, or 76 = 2584
89 + 34 = 123 55 times the sum, or 123 = 6765
144 + 55 = 199 89 times the sum, or 199 = 17711
233 + 89 = 322 144 times the sum, or 322 = 60768
377+144 = 521 233 times the sum, or 521 = 121393

One may induce some significance to these every other fibos that result from deriving the 2nd order fibonacci's: 3, 8, 21, 55, 144, 377, 987, 2584... These are the "even" sequentially occurring fibonacci's. The "odd" sequential fibonacci's are: 2, 5, 13, 34, 89, 233, 610... So I divide up the 1st order fibonacci's into these two categories as well as the 2nd order fibonacci's. Just didn't give them a name yet (bright and shadow fibonacci's ?)

2nd order fibonacci series: 3 4 7 11 18 29 47 76 (19 x 4) 123 (41 x 3) 199 322 (7 x 23 x 2) 521 ...

3rd order fibonacci series: 10 15 25 40 65 105 170 275 445 720 1165 1885 ...

To derive the 3rd order fibonacci series from the 2nd order fibonacci series, add the 2nd order fibo on each side of any 2nd order fibo to get a multiplicative component of a 2nd order fibo x sequences ahead when multiplied by the fibo in between, as such:

(2nd order Fibo series: 3 4 7 11 18 29 47 76 123 199 322 521 943 1464 ...)

And we get the 3rd order Fibo series, by:

3 + 7 = 10 4 (middle) times the sum = 40 = 5 x 8
4 + 11 = 15 7 (middle) times the sum = 105 = 5 x 21
7 + 18 = 25 11 times the sum = 275 = 5 x 55
11 + 29 = 40 18 times the sum = 720 = 5 x 144
18 + 47 = 65 29 times the sum = 1885 = 5 x 377

So we get these same "important" every other fibos again. It seems to me that 8^2, 21^2, 55^2, 144^2, etc
are more important from my collection of past measurements than the shadow fibonacci's squared.

3rd order Fibo series is as far as I take it. If you add every other 3rd order fibo, you will get 5 x the 2nd order fibo. So, really, there are only 1st order fibos and 2nd order fibos. 3rd and higher order Fibos are repeats in some combination of the first 2 orders, just as in the examples that I provided, with 1 away on each side, 2 away on each side, of the 1st order fibonacci series. ONLY these two orders exist. I guess we just plain live in duality and not triality or higher, though there are higher dimensions, it is all variations of duality.

And these 3rd order fibos are important in markets. The second order fibos explain some big market events
that I couldn't really explain in terms of time-measurements before I just did this. But once I calculated these, I said to myself AHAH ! THAT EXPLAINS why such and such is important, though I had NO IDEA WHY such and such was important earlier, though I remembered just what numbers they were that were suspect. I use emperical methods. I see what is (from the past) and work from there. 3rd order fibos, as well as multiplicative combinations of 2nd and 1st order are where one can look for major turns.

Just more fooling around to demonstrate that there are only 1st order and 2nd order fibonacci's.

(1st order fibonacci series: 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377)

Add the fibo second away on each side of any fibo to get:

5 + 1 = 6 2 (middle fibo) 2 x 3
8 + 1 = 9 3 (middle fibo) 3 x 3
13 + 2 = 15 5 (middle fibo) 5 x 3
21 + 3 = 24 8 (middle fibo) 8 x 3
34 + 5 = 39 13 (middle fibo) 13 x 3
55 + 8 = 63 21 (middle fibo) 21 x 3
89 + 13 = 102 34 34 x 3
144 + 21 = 165 55 55 x 3
233 + 34 = 267 89 89 x 3

Add the fibo third away on each side of any fibo to get 2 times the 2nd order series:

13 + 1 = 14 3 (middle fibo) 2 x 7
21 + 1 = 22 5 (middle fibo) 2 x 11
34 + 2 = 36 8 (middle fibo) 2 x 18
55 + 3 = 58 13 (middle fibo) 2 x 29
89 + 5 = 94 21 (middle fibo) 2 x 47
144 + 8 = 152 34 2 x 76
233 + 13 = 246 55 2 x 123
377 + 21 = 398 89 2 x 199
...

Add the fibo fourth away on each side of any fibo to get:

34 + 1 = 35 5 (middle fibo) 7 x 5
55 + 1 = 56 8 (middle fibo) 7 x 8
89 + 2 = 91 13 (middle fibo) 7 x 13
144 + 3 = 147 21 (middle fibo) 7 x 21
233 + 5 = 238 34 (middle fibo) 7 x 34
377 + 8 = 385 = 7 x 55
610 + 13 = 246 = 7 x 89
987 + 21 = 398 = 7 x 144
...
Gann liked the number 7 alot.

Add the fibo fifth away on each side of any fibo to get:

89 + 1 = 90 = 5 x 18
144 + 1 = 145 = 5 x 29
233 + 2 = 235 = 5 x 47
377 + 3 = 380 = 5 x 76
610 + 5 = 615 = 5 x 123
987 + 8 = 995 = 5 x 199
1597 + 13 = 2110 = 5 x 322
2584 + 21 = 2605 = 5 x 521
...
This additive series is called: Michael-tell-no-fib Series.

Add the fibo sixth away on each side of any fibo to get:

233 + 1 = 234 = 18 x 13
377 + 1 = 378 = 18 x 21
610 + 2 = 612 = 18 x 34
987 + 3 = 990 = 18 x 55
1597+5 = 1602 = 18 x 89
2584 + 8 = 2592 = 18 x 144
...
This additive series is called: The Michael-ive-had-enuf Series.

Msg#: 21154
From: treehouse (Bonsai Treehouse)
To: ALL
Date Posted` April 24, 2001 at 05:57:01
Subject: observation

I have stopped posting here but since I got this link from Perry at the CB, I thought I would at least share these observations as courtesy. Sorry about the large image.

Note: Please don't ask me about Ermanometry as I know very little. The book hasn't even been published and the very little I know, you can get at their website,
www.ermanometry.com

If the image does not show up, please click here image.

What is of interest on this chart is how each number is derived. If you glance over the Ermanometry website, he goes into breif detail about ratios and continuous Three Term Proportion.

Simply put, I observed that from the Jan 14, 2000, all time high to the Oct 18, 2000 low was 278 cd. Within that time span, from the March 8, 2000 low to the Sept 6, 2000 high is 182 cd. That gives us a ratio of approximately .655

182/278 = .65467
.655 * 182 = 119
.655 * 119 = 78

Continuing on with that ratio, .655 of 182 is 119 cd which you can also see on the chart. If you do not recall the importance of the January 3-4, 2001 period I'll remind you that was when the first surprise rate cut occurred. All those dates are exact. This is not a forecast in any way. I won't comment to much more except I have two projected numbers coming up, 4/25/01 and 5/2/01. I think 5/2 may have more importance and you might notice that instead of the sequence of days getting smaller, the sequence of numbers might now be expanding (instead of going from 119 to the next number 78, we are going from 78 to 119). Whatever that means, well you'll just have to observe like me.

But just for fun, I might guess that 5/2 will represent a high and near 5/12 will represent a low.

.655 * 78 = 51

51 cd from the March 22, 2001 low = May 12, 2001 (Saturday).

Regards,

Tree

Msg#: 22316
From: deuxsous (Tom Drake)
To: timer_ (Ron Damask)
Date Posted: April 27, 2001 at 20:07:08
Subject: Re: Timer_ T-Bills | Fed

however, i believe there comes a time when this relationship inverts and more closely resembles the popular intuition that lowering rates is good and raising them bad. it is my conclusion that we are in the early stages of one such period which will last for the next several decades.

what will be happening is that market interest rates will be rising for a long time: not in a steady or linear fashion to be sure. but looking back on it one will clearly see that the trend was up. in this enviroment ahead, lowering interest rates during economic pauses will in fact stimulate activity and promote recovery.

this will be partly for the reasons you understand: that bankers will be able to increase their loan volumes even if the rates are somewhat less than before because *over the longer run rates are inexorably moving up*.

another reason is that borrowers will be willing to invest now as their assets will appreciate faster, and they can pass increased costs along to their clients and customers, something that was impossible over the past 19 years. everyone will become acccustomed to paying more for everything. so the economy and the stock market will participate in the markup of values caused by increased rates. if things get a bit out of hand from time to time, the FED will reduce rates and get it all back on course again, as most people think should *alway* happen.

of course there will come a time when everything will suddenly be "too high" and then stocks will join into bonds' bear market. but that will take quite a while. i estimate that will be in about 2115.

2c

Msg#: 23938
From: zak (Zachary Hamlin)
To: lurkerboy (lurkerboy lurkerboy)
Date Posted: May 04, 2001 at 15:33:30
Subject: Re: A change in 55 year trend

Thanks for the reference to the World Bank presentation on the
international capital flow cycle and its crises.

Slide 17, which I have copied and uploaded, tells the whole story
from the LW perspective:

World Bank's commentary on this slide is as follows:

"All four episodes were accompanied by solid growth in world trade
and investment, were punctuated by currency and financial
instability in the capital receiving countries, and eventually ended in
global political or economic crisis.
[The first wave of British capital to Latin America to finance
infrastructure and mining ended with the crisis of 1825. The second
wave ended with the 1873 financial crisis in Europe. The inflow of
foreign capital to the United States in the 1820s and 1830s ended
with the depression of 1837-43.]

"This figure shows that debt defaults were widespread during the
late 19th century and jumped sharply following the 1920s and
1970s booms in capital flows." [end of quote]

In each case (~1835, 1873, 1933, 1982) the international capital
flow crisis began quite rapidly with the developed countries' "crash
from plateau" of the LW top formation, which I have previously
discussed in detail here and elsewhere. This will not be a surprise
to those who understand the dynamics behind the Long Wave of
Kondratieff.

The slide also demonstrates the fact, which I have also discussed
many times, that the current capital cycle from 1982 has resulted
in large scale restructurings rather than primarily outright and total
debt repudiation as in earlier cycles. As those familiar with the
history of this cycle will remember, it was "Mexico I" in 1982 which
set the policy format which remains in place.

There are several benefits which accrue to this policy. One is that
restructuring allows for earlier resumption of positive capital flows
than would be the case with total repudiation. This is the same
benefit we find under prevailing US corporate bankruptcy laws,
which allow for resumption of short term credits and purchasing
power while the previous debt is worked out by the court.

Nor is restructuring as deflationary as repudiation since all the
debt is not lost and the borrower and the economic benefit flowing
from him is not totally destroyed.

It is this policy shift, and other re-flationary long term political
changes, which has led so many to miss the very fact that a
"crash from plateau" and Kondratieff down wave was occurring at
all.

But for countries needing the capital flows, who are often also
heavily tilted toward commodity production, this has been a
devastating down wave. Even for Japan this has been an extremely
harsh down wave.

Another interesting feature of the capital flow cycle shown on the
slide is that the percent of debt repudiation or restructuring is
highest right at the "crash from plateau" bottom, so that even
though the down wave of Kondratieff has 15-20 years to run, the
crisis is already ebbing. And as the upturn in the next up wave of
Kondratieff begins, the percent default rate ratchets downward
gradually in the inflationary growth phase.

I continue to believe that we are in the transition from the last down
wave to the new upwave. One shouldn't read too much into any one
week's or month's data with a 50-60 year cycle, but evidence of
wage gains, worker demands, and the fact that consumers will
have more to spend are telling.

Initial first quarter US GDP shows that the consumer is supporting
the economy as corporations retrench a bit. The usual response
from the deflationists is that that consumers are using credit cards
or home equity loans, but evidence from previous cycles shows
that labor wage gains are what drives the up cycle of the Long
Wave. As inflationary growth picks up so do international capital
flows.

Regards,

Tom

PS: I also noted in the World Bank presentation the very prominent
role that Denmark plays as the nation with the highest percent of
GDP devoted to international aid. Hopefully the US will do better in
the future.

TD@TenorioResearch.itgo.com
http://TenorioResearch.itgo.com

http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/longwaves/2001/msg01036.html

• http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/longwaves/2001/msg01036.html

Msg#: 24891
From: stanharley (Stan Harley)
To: ionsys (gary burton)
Date Posted: May 09, 2001 at 14:41:56
Subject: 36 TD and 99 TD Cycles

Gary:

Some confusion can exist if one uses the terms cycles, market rhythm, and harmonics interchangeably. I prefer to reserve the word "cycle" for a trough-to-trough event. But the reality is that on the daily charts, trough-to-trough events do not continue beyond 8-10 evolutions before fading.

Like fibonacci, the cycle/harmonic rhythm tool is best used as a change in trend predictor. As one who makes his living as a market forecaster, I have had numerous occasions where a predicted high turned out to be a low and vice versa (haven't we all!) But as we get closer and closer to the predicted change in trend date, I can assess overbought/oversold conditions and thus achieve a greater degree of accuracy in my forecast.

As I said during the interview, the market structure appears quite buoyant to me here, reminding me a lot of the structure coming out of the 14-Apr-97L. My sense is that the indices will mark time in a sideways evolution to work off the overbought condition. Cyclical schedules can be accomplished by either the market going down or going sideways. When the latter occurs, you've got a very buoyant/strong market condition on your hands and the market comes roaring out of the cycle low in an impulsive fashion.

Mr. Wolanchuk, I read on this board, is looking for a cycle high in approximately the same time frame (the May 16th time period). He has written that he gives himself +/- 30 days of orb in his projected turning points. He's a bright guy, and a fellow Market Timer of the Year. He may well be right. We shall soon see...

Stan Harley

Msg#: 26248
From: da_cheif (don wolanchuk)
To: sandstone (James McRae)
Date Posted: May 14, 2001 at 21:26:36
Subject: Re: don let me ask you

Msg#: 27051
From: da_cheif (don wolanchuk)
To: ALL
Date Posted: May 16, 2001 at 22:28:18
Subject: cycle high...

ok boyz..ya know I toll ya der wuz dis here cycle high du on da 16th.....well dats on da calendar...da next lo is monday....plus ur minus one day....a reaction is possible tomoorrow cuz of da following fibonucce tings......foist of all da ny composite nailed its 78.6 retrace off its all time hi to da recent low....dat 78.6 number is 653.24....wed hi 653.15.....da sp400 mid cap did da same...78.6 is 524.54.....wed hi 524.99....dat value line geometric...78.6 from da last hi to da recent low is 408.45...wed hi 407.16......a reaction most always occurs offa any 78.6 retrace....as for da vix its headed for 2205....which suggests that any reaction on thur and or friday if indeed der iswon...will be mild enough to keep da vix down...as for da 65 componsite its on da verge of a historic high....pennies away....da value line aritmatic is at histroic highs....da elliot wave structure of da dow counts best as entering da epicenter of primary wave three with initial fibanacci target of 16660 which is da minimum expectation calculated as a 1.38 push off da 2nd wave pullback dat bottomed in 98..off da orthodox 5 of one peak earlier indat year.....so der it is....and yell all u want I aint arguing wit nobody....thats da way itis and dats da way it shall be....nutin will stopit.....cheers

Msg#: 29059
From: stanharley (Stan Harley)
To: wilson1336 (william wilson)
Date Posted: May 24, 2001 at 00:46:39
Subject: Derivation of the 39.25 Unit Market Rhythm

Derivation of the 39.25 Unit Cycle.
The derivation of the 39.25 unit cycle lies in the fact that important market troughs tend to cluster about the time periods of 26 (secondary fib number), 34 (primary fib), 42 (secondary fib), and 55 (primary fib number) months/weeks/days/hours. The average of these four fibonacci numbers yields 39.25 time units. A statistical analysis of the data produces a bell-shaped distribution curve and quantifies 39.25 units as both the mean and the median of the data series, just as fibonacci theory predicts.

39.25 months is also known among cycle analysts as the 3.3 year cycle (Don Wolanchuk, Robert Prechter, and Stan Ehrlich have made reference).

39.25 weeks is about 8.6 months, and it shows up quite frequently in the stock market. The half-span harmonic of the 39.25 week cycle is what I refer to as the 19.625 week (99 TD) primary cycle. And the half-span of this cycle is 49.5 TDs, one that I have also referenced both in my newsletter and in Crystal Ball postings.

39.25 TD rhythms, too, are quite common, as are 39.25 hour cycles I have found. My research has shown that the 39.25 hour cycle is indeed quite prominent in the stock indices. Like its weekly counterpart, the 39.25 hour primary cycle, too, is normally divided into two components, which I refer to as alpha and bravo. But, unlike the weekly data, the alpha and bravo components for the 39.25 hour cycle are not so evenly spaced in their duration; in contrast to their weekly counterpart, there tends to be no discernible proportional relationship at all between them. Also, my research has shown that at the tailend of an important decline, two additional factors tend to occur quite often -- but not always – first, the 39.25 hour cycle tends to undergo some unusual distortion, generally a lengthening of the pattern from the usual 39.25 hour norm – I find that 55-61 hours has been quite common. Secondly, there tends to be an additional hourly subcycle imbedded in the 39.25 hour cycle which I term the charlie component.

In addition to the 39.25 primary hourly cycle, there are two additional rhythms that show up in the hourly data on a consistent basis – 24.25 hours and 30.8 hours. These two rhythms are the product of .618 X 39.25 and .786 X 39.25. The 39.25 hour cycle and its two harmonics of 24.25 hours and 30.8 hours, my research has shown, are, without question, the key ingredient to deciphering the hourly movements – futures traders take note.

The 39.25 hour primary cycle, although mainly used to describe trough-to-trough events, is also useful in other ways. Starting with any prominent high or low -- take, for example, the FOMC high on January 31st at 11:30 am Pacific Time – count forward and backward multiples of 39.25 hours – as market technicians, you’ll be amazed at the turning points, mainly highs, that occur.

Using again the FOMC high on January 31st at 11:30 am Pacific Time – count forward and backward multiples of 24.25 hours – take note of the turning points, mainly highs, that occur.

Stan Harley

Msg#: 29375
From: waver (Pat Whalen)
To: ALL
Date Posted: May 25, 2001 at 01:37:45
Subject: Discovering Surf

The best and most cogent modern Fibonacci market theorist I have found is Tony Plummer, a bond trader in London. He wrote a book in 1989 titled, "Forecasting Financial Markets" (Kogan Page, London) in which he acknowledges the great insights of Elliott, but discards the orthodoxy of his system. Plummer brings the thoery down to earth by describing what is being analyzed as a system of crowd behavior, a cyclic continuum of sentiment expansion and contraction. His model is in many ways more elegant that Elliott's. He describes something he calls a price pulse, where there is a base built during which there is something very much like a contraction of energy built up in the market, and then a breakout, an energetic "pulse," taking prices to a level which usually has a Fibonacci relationship to the size of the base. Plummer is refreshingly modest about his understanding of markets. Unlike the Elliot Wavers, he does not claim to understand every move a market makes. I suspect this has something to do with the fact that he is a real trader, working for a major London bank, and not a newsletter writer or "advisor." Dealing with real markets where real money can be lost can bring one's theoretical flights of fancy down to earth very quickly.

There are plenty of people selling systems and advisory newsletters based on Fibonacci analysis of markets. They provide charts showing all sorts of clear Fibonacci relationships embedded in past market moves and then give you easy rules to follow to make huge profits. They have as much worth as the programs which promise to show you how to get rich by buying real estate with no money down. The idea that you can follow a simple system of rules and beat the market is worthless. It is as if someone who had a Ph.D. in advanced mathematics were to go to the North shore of Hawaii, assuming that his or her knowledge of differential equations were all that were needed to win a surfing competition against all those ignorant surfers who had no theoretical knowledge of wave mechanics.

Surf: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597 .....

Msg#: 30748
From: stanharley (Stan Harley)
To: ALL
Date Posted: June 01, 2001 at 18:11:05
Subject: SQUARING OF PRICE and TIME

SQUARING PRICE WITH TIME

I have previously written about my employment of squaring price with time. This technique involves counting forward in time an equal number of time units as units of price from an important high or low. I find it useful not only in projecting trend reversals in individual stocks, the indices, and commodities, but predicting reversals in the trends of the casino games like roulette and craps as well, demonstrating that time and price are inextricably related.

Squaring price and time is a technique that alerts me to the potential - but not the certainty - for a change in trend. The advance projection does not indicate whether that trend change will be a high or low; one must incorporate the use of additional tools, e.g., pattern analysis, cycles, range oscillators and/or measurement of price velocity to make that determination. It also does not project the magnitude of the move following the trend change. But, it is a very, very useful tool none-the-less.

The Scaling Factor
The major problem inherent in the squaring of price and time involves the application of a scaling factor, or multiplier, to the raw data. In working with the stock indices, for example, the price units are so large that the direct conversion of the price units into time units produces an expected trend change date/hour that is very distant and of little use. To fix this problem requires the application of a scaling factor. The question, then, what scaling factor to use?

My research has shown the fibonacci constant that is the key factor. But not just 0.618034 -- -- it is .618034 raised to the nth power -- that is the key:
.618034^2 = .381966;
.618034^3 = .236068;
.618034^4 = .145898;
.618034^5 = .090170;
.618034^6 = .055728;
.618034^7 = .034442;
.618034^8 = .021286, and
.618034^9 = .013156.

My research has shown that 0.618034 raised to the seventh, eight, and ninth powers are the most important factors to use for predicting reversals on the hourly charts.

Using the 22-May-01H to Predict the Price lows of May 30th and June 1st:

22-May-2001H at 1315.93: Take the value of 1315.93, multiply it by .034442 X 0.786 (= 36) add 36 hours to the hour that the high occurred, and you’ll arrive at the exact hour of the price low on May 30, 2001 (13:58pm EDT, 10:58am PDT). With this information as well as my awareness of cyclical functions, I sensed that a price low was imminent; I posted on C/B at 14:23:50 on May 30th: “Presently, we are 36 hours from the 22-May-01H. I have found that market rhythms of 27 and 36 (and multiples of 9) to be the guiding structure behind the market’s movements.”

22-May-2001H at 1315.93: Take the value of 1315.93, multiply it by .034442 X 1.0 (= 46) add 46 hours to the hour that the high occurred, and you’ll arrive at the exact hour of the price low on June 1, 2001 (10:24am EDT, 07:24am PDT).

I can’t but help notice the divergences at this morning’s lows; the NYA went lower today, the S&P 500 did not exceed Wednesday’s lows. I would also point out that it has been my observation that important mid-cycle pause events in the 19.625 week (99 TD) cycle occur 48-54 TDs from the prior cycle low (22-Mar-01L in this case). We are presently 49 TDs from the 22-Mar-01L.

Good Trading to All,

STAN HARLEY
Editor/Publisher The Harley Market Letter

Category: TA
Msg#: 31224
From: stanharley (Stan Harley)
To: ALL
Date Posted: June 05, 2001 at 09:50:57
Subject: Interview in Today's Investor's Business Daily: 99 TD Cycle

Crystal Ball readers are invited to check out my interview in today's Investor's Business Daily, page 6, "Trackers Say Nasdaq's Pattern This Year a Fluke" by Jed Graham.

Mr. Graham and I discussed the current market pattern, the 19.625 week (99 TD) cyclical schedule (see chart above), and the point at which I think the current intermediate trend will crest.

Stan Harley
Editor/Publisher The Harley Market Letter

Msg#: 34505
From: lunar (tom thompson)
To: bigdog2590 (norral rathan)
Date Posted: June 23, 2001 at 01:40:07
Subject: Re: Tom , maybe you can help me

Since I'm a Tom and I look at the Spiral Calendar and cycles, I thought I'd respond. I am probably not the TOM you are looking for though.

It is my perspective that we will see significant market weakness later in the year. My posting last year on another site ---Road to the Market Top 2004, is still intact. In my opinion, we have only seen an "A" wave and the market is busy playing out the "B" wave psychology of hope and denial almost perfectly,therefore; it is understandable that sentiment indicators are giving readings of too much bullishness. Bernie Schaeffer has the same concerns that you do. I am assuming that low VIX readings mean over-optimism? I feel that sentiment indicators at this stage of the market cycle are the proverbial
"Granville Hook."

To set the market up for a "C" wave we need 'irrational exuberance' :-) As Bernard Baruch said, there is a point when the continuity of thought in the market suddenly changes and there is a mass realization that something is terribly wrong with the markets and the economy AND my interpretation is that
a "C" wave with its accompanying psychology of concern, dispair and fear is created.

I feel that July and August will set the market up for a "C" wave. GM is a very important stock to focus on. On 21June01, the stock came close to satisfying a typical rally high. And today the stock reversed lower. The weakness we are seeing in the market and GM now seems to solidify the bear case near term, but I believe that the is a good probability that GM will break out to a new recovery high this will indicate that more "B" wave activity is to be played out. This fits in with a top in the July-August time period. The surprises should be to the upside not the downside. The bears must be hurt enough so they cover their positions at the wrong time and this prevents them from re-shorting into the powerful "C" wave.

Of course, the scenario I am expecting could be a no show. Now, will the real TOM step up to the plate and help Norral :-) Just keep those Fibo numbers coming! Good luck, tom

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37168
From: tradercrystal (Lorne Henderson)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 08, 2001 at 23:41:51
Subject: overhead resistance

volume by price for Friday's trading (es)

Category: Technical Talk
Msg#: 37183
From: treehouse (Bonsai Treehouse)
To: porter (Porter Johnson)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 02:19:04
Subject: Re: Breadth Momentum

Porter

From Tree.

Porter,

I happen to now agree that we may be sideways to up into later July. I had previously thought going back several weeks that we would have a low in later July but since Friday, that doesn't seem to be the case.

Attached is a chart of breadth as I see it and I see bullish divergence.

As for an Elliott wave count (only for DJIA) if anyone cares. Throughout June, I have been suggesting that the decline from May 22 has been only wave 'A' of a larger correction. There is still a question of whether the rally from the March 22 (or April 4) low is wave 1 up or wave A. I now tend to think it is wave A. So since May 22, we are in a large degree 'B' wave. Of which, within that 'B' wave, we are only now completing wave 'A' of 'B'.

Please note that I am not very good with times or cycles so perhaps someone else might have ideas. The last chart does not imply any price targets either. Right now I am looking for a high into July 25. Then a low anywhere from mid August to early September followed by a rally, possibly to new all time highs. After that, who knows.

Regards,

Tree

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37186
From: velociraptor (Christian Leon)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 04:09:13
Subject: Market comments

Tight trading ranges should give us the next clue.

For the DOW a break up through 10,280 is bullish, down through 10,200 is bearish.

Naz... a break up through 2020 is bullish with a move up through 2040 confirming the bullish
bias, down through 2000 is bearish with a possible test of 1975.

S&P...move down through 1289 tests at least 1184 with next major support near 1150. Up through 1195 could test 1204 and then 1220.

Bias...short term is slightly down with hourly very oversold making the downside limited if there is any left. Daily is falling from overbought still
so any bounce may be corrective.

More info and details at the site.

http://www.raptorgroupresearch.com

Category: Technical Talk
Msg#: 37187
From: bigdog2590 (norral rathan)
To: treehouse (Bonsai Treehouse)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 07:46:01
Subject: Re: Breadth Momentum

Category: TA
Msg#: 37188
From: michael (Michael Henry)
To: madrone (Steve Pfiffner)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 09:25:40
Subject: Re: Numerology magic squares and gold

The funny thing is, is that I believe that I know the top of gold in the fall and I have gone through all of the other possible wave III's times and wouldn't you guess, it must be the very last remaining possibility before then. When all other possibilities have been eliminated, what remains, however unlikely, is ... Sherlock Holmes.

Category: Market Predictions
Msg#: 37190
From: david_neeran (David Neeran)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 09:53:36
Subject: Retest coming up after amateur hour...

Sure I am bullish, expecting something a little more than your typical dead cat bounce, but I would change my mind if it does not retest Friday's low and THEN go up. Thus, I expect a restest coming soon. I can't believe everyone who wants to sell has sold already. Of course, one never knows, one learns everyday, and most of all, more powerful people than us do what they want to do with the marketes.

Category: Astro
Msg#: 37191
From: mww (Myles Wilson)
To: deuxsous (Tom Drake)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 09:59:29
Subject: Re: Dollar Top

Category: Technical Talk
Msg#: 37195
From: tonycastelli (Tony Castelli)
To: bigdog2590 (norral rathan)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 10:24:33
Subject: Re: Breadth Momentum

Tony C.

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37196
From: pc (Phillip Crocco)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 10:29:21
Subject: Highs and lows

I'm looking for A high around noon before the next move down (not necessarily THE high of the day), and for daily trends to move lower near the end of trading (not necessarily THE daily low).

My take for the Dow Industrials:
http://www.wallstreetconjunct.com/Updates.htm

Category: TA
Msg#: 37197
From: drak (Mike Drakulich)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 10:29:24
Subject: SOX; Marginal new low, now reversing. WATCH CLOSELY

Gotta watch this important index very closely, made a very marginal new low this morning since the May highs, and having a good reversal so far, very important to watch as an important low "could" have been made. Very tricky here. We can all have our "opinions" but PRICE ACTION RULES.

Drak

Category: TA
Msg#: 37201
From: tonycastelli (Tony Castelli)
To: drak (Mike Drakulich)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 10:40:17
Subject: Re: SOX; Marginal new low, now reversing. WATCH CLOSELY

• 55 cd panic low

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37205
From: tonycastelli (Tony Castelli)
To: tradercrystal (Lorne Henderson)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 10:53:26
Subject: Re: overhead resistance

Category: Market Predictions
Msg#: 37206
From: trotsky (heinz blasnik)
To: deuxsous (Tom Drake)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 10:56:01
Subject: Re: December

Category: TA
Msg#: 37207
From: drak (Mike Drakulich)
To: da_cheif (don wolanchuk)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 10:56:50
Subject: CBOE P/C ratio .96(nm)

Category: TA
Msg#: 37208
From: jklatt (J Klatt)
To: konig (Mike Konig)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 11:00:18
Subject: Re: don't you mean a champ?

you bears are impossible!

hmmm, lets see....

we went from 2850 to 1650 on q1 warnings.

we have now gone from 2350 to 2000 on q2 warnings.

do you know why the bleeding is only 25% as bad? if you can answer that magical question, you might change your target of 1500. if you need help with it, let me know. ;)

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37209
From: tradercrystal (Lorne Henderson)
To: tonycastelli (Tony Castelli)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 11:07:53
Subject: Re: overhead resistance

Category: TA
Msg#: 37228
From: black_elk (André M)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 12:08:45
Subject: Circles - Cycles

some might laugh about that, but relax and think about..

The Great Circle

You have noticed that everything an Indian does is in a circle, and that is because the Power of the World always works in circles, and everything tries to be round. In the old days when we were a strong and happy people, all our power came to us from the sacred hoop of the nation, and so long as the hoop was unbroken, the people flourished. The flowering tree was the living center of the hoop, and the circle of the four quarters nourished it. The east gave peace and light, the south gave warmth, the west gave rain, and the north with its cold and mighty wind gave strength and endurance. This knowledge came to us from the outer world with our religion. Everything the Power of the World does is done in a circle. The sky is round, and I have heard that the earth is round like a ball, and so are all the stars. The wind, in its greatest power, whirls. Birds make their nests in circles, for theirs is the same religion as ours. The sun comes forth and goes down again in a circle. The moon does the same, and both are round. Even the seasons form a great circle in their changing, and always come back again to where they were. The life of a man is a circle from childhood to childhood, and so it is in everything where power moves. Our teepees were round like the nests of birds, and these were always set in a circle, the nation’s hoop, a nest of many nests, where the Great Spirit meant for us to hatch our children.

~ Black Elk

Category: Technical Talk
Msg#: 37239
From: david_neeran (David Neeran)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 12:46:07
Subject: Next 15 minutes tells it all....

Crucial juncture right NOW!
MACD on the 13-min charts can KIss and move up or cross down
into the death spiral to SPX 1156, with minor supports on the
way at 1177 & 1164
STOCH on 13 min charts are down below: either it flatlines there
as the market drops or stoch moves up as SPX tries to break
1198 resistance.

>nm
>
>

>

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37245
From: tradercrystal (Lorne Henderson)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 13:11:27
Subject: today's intraday pullback to 1198

was 62% retrace of the move up from friday's low to todays hi

was just short of 50% retrace of the move up from the new overnite low to today's hi so far.

impt. to hold this level if this rally(?)is to continue.

Category: TA
Msg#: 37249
From: drak (Mike Drakulich)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 13:22:46
Subject: REVERSAL TIME: I'M LONG

I now have a fully "hedged" 100% long QQQ position taken this morning. I am fully hedged with QQQ puts, this allows me to go long with a small fixed downside risk thru oprion expiration on July 20th. While I'm not "sure" here, what I am seeing so far today looks more like at least a near term bottom forming than a big downside 3rd wave underway. I will remain VERY flexible here and can always swing back to a more short position.

DRAK

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37250
From: iang (Ian Thijm)
To: tradercrystal (Lorne Henderson)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 13:27:05
Subject: 1.30H

Category: Technical Talk
Msg#: 37253
From: migz (migz g)
To: hmjazz (A. zedor)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 13:43:21
Subject: Re: surely, you are short from the top....

Category: Technical Talk
Msg#: 37254
From: migz (migz g)
To: migz (migz g)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 13:44:41
Subject: Re: surely, you are short from the top....

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37256
From: trotsky (heinz blasnik)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 13:57:27
Subject: "coup de whiskey" for the stock market

after adding over 17 billion dollars in repos and coupon passes last week, Fed adds yet another 7.25 billion today...while officially denied, these operations are indeed stock market support measures. since about three times more shares are traded than goods and services purchased in the US (dollar volume), the stock market has become by far the biggest part of economic activity. the term 'coup de whiskey for the stock market' was coined in the 1920's by a Fed governor to describe the Fed's repo operations. the one category of bank credit that has been rising the fastest this year is loans for securities purchases - the market is kept afloat by expanding credit further and further.
the above Fed operations are a heads-up for both bears and bulls: it means on the one hand, that short term market strength is to be expected - on the other hand, it also means that positions are being taken in the market that would not have been taken otherwise, i.e., artificial , purely credit based demand has been created, which is a longer term negative (as these positions will have to be unwound at some point in the future).

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37258
From: iang (Ian Thijm)
To: da_cheif (don wolanchuk)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 14:06:22
Subject: Market at Intraday Resistance at 1202-1203SPX

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37259
From: iang (Ian Thijm)
To: da_cheif (don wolanchuk)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 14:06:51
Subject: Market at Intraday Resistance at 1202-1203SPX

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^SPC&d=c&k=c4&t=5d

• Intraday SPX at Resistance

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37265
From: iang (Ian Thijm)
To: iang (Ian Thijm)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 14:18:01
Subject: Re: Market at Intraday Resistance at 1202-1203SPX

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37268
From: david_neeran (David Neeran)
To: iang (Ian Thijm)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 14:35:29
Subject: Re: Market at Intraday Resistance at 1202-1203SPX

SPX/SPU1 looks like an impulse move up ST. Do you give your support/resistance levels 'room to breathe', like maybe a SPX 5-point tolerance on either side?

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37269
From: konig (Mike Konig)
To: david_neeran (David Neeran)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 14:45:01
Subject: Re: Market at Intraday Resistance at 1202-1203SPX

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37272
From: iang (Ian Thijm)
To: david_neeran (David Neeran)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 14:49:29
Subject: Re: Market at Intraday Resistance at 1202-1203SPX

http://139.142.147.15/index.html

• SPX Channel

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37273
From: foton (frank oster)
To: iang (Ian Thijm)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 14:53:43
Subject: Re: Market at Intraday Resistance at 1202-1203SPX

Category: Market Predictions
Msg#: 37274
From: bearrister (Gordon Kinder)
To: david_neeran (David Neeran)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 14:54:25
Subject: Now itz a fight to hold 2000 NAS and 12000 Nikkei.

They're just like the generals in WWI, gentlemen. They'll bleed themselves white trying to defend their lines, and repeated assaults will make no progress.

The bear is a patient, cunning beast. It will wait until they're too weak and then strike.

It may be a boring July.
Summer doldrums and all that.

I said it beFUR - time is on the side of the bear. Again Bubblevision is full of talk about "hope" for a turnaround, conceding "traders" are "worried" about "earnings". In the meantime, the economy is just BEGINNING to work it's inexorable effect upon the financials, as both the bonkers and the BROKE>>>rages begin to falter.

The notion, advanced by DW, of "consolidation" at these extreme valuations, is fatuous. Time should establish that. We've had our mania. It should not resume, nor CAN it until deflation is
brought to bay, globally. Right now it is on a relentless march/advance. Nor will it resume until tech turns. There will be no bottom until the love affair with tech ends, IMHO. And we are a LONG way from such a state of mind.

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37275
From: foton (frank oster)
To: iang (Ian Thijm)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 15:00:54
Subject: Re: Market at Intraday Resistance at 1202-1203SPX

Category: TA
Msg#: 37276
From: black_elk (André M)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 15:13:35
Subject: SPX5min

@Ian Thijn..you expected a low at july 10.. and a rally around 11./12. july.. i think we are in wave i of 5 of an inverted impulse..this week we see the last chance to get short before a minisrash.. the support area 1170 should see a 1-2 day rally but after that a drop to the 1070 area as wave iii of 5. at the end of this month there should be a good opportunity to go long till late summer..then the bear market will continue..i don't care of long or short..

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37277
From: pooh99 (T L)
To: trotsky (heinz blasnik)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 15:17:35
Subject: Re: "coup de whiskey" for the stock market

pooh

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37278
From: tradercrystal (Lorne Henderson)
To: pooh99 (T L)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 15:23:35
Subject: Re: "coup de whiskey" for the stock market

Category: TA
Msg#: 37279
From: jerry (Jerry Oberhelman)
To: drak (Mike Drakulich)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 15:23:58
Subject: neog vs dow

I know this isn't a good proxy but I find it interesting that neog peaked then the dow now we are breaking out will the DOW bust out here?

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37280
From: pooh99 (T L)
To: tradercrystal (Lorne Henderson)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 15:30:24
Subject: Re: "coup de whiskey" for the stock market

lol

pooh

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37288
From: pooh99 (T L)
To: da_cheif (don wolanchuk)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 15:49:51
Subject: Re: "coup de whiskey" for the stock market

pooh

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37289
From: david_neeran (David Neeran)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 16:04:22
Subject: Rally killer: RESEARCH ALERT-CSFB cuts Cisco estimates

Monday July 9, 4:00 pm Eastern Time
RESEARCH ALERT-CSFB cuts Cisco estimates
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Credit Suisse First Boston cuts earnings estimates for networking giant Cisco Systems Inc. Monday because of the ongoing poor technology spending environment, pricing pressure and currency issues.

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37292
From: david_neeran (David Neeran)
To: david_neeran (David Neeran)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 16:10:42
Subject: Rally killer II : CORNING warns, it may go to 0?

Category: TA
Msg#: 37295
From: iang (Ian Thijm)
To: black_elk (André M)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 16:22:20
Subject: Re: SPX5min

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37296
From: hamzei_analytics (Fari Hamzei)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 16:26:42
Subject: Jon "DRJ" Najarian commentary on JAGfn.com

Just Click & Read On

• When Goldman and Morgan Duke it Out, Guess Who Wins?

Category: TA
Msg#: 37302
From: konig (Mike Konig)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 17:05:46
Subject: alternate

this is a alternate count that has been in my mind for awhile. I do suppose it started with the first wave down which gave me a 3 wave feeling (an A that is).
Actually, this count fits very well with Nasdaq.

So, for me its this count or we are in 2:5:5. Anyhow, it really has to take off DOWN HARD AND FAST and really destroy soon, otherwise I would not be suprised that this one take off up in an C

Category: Technical Talk
Msg#: 37303
From: manfred (Manfred Zimmel)
To: konig (Mike Konig)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 17:21:34
Subject: Re: alternate

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37304
From: tradercrystal (Lorne Henderson)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 17:43:52
Subject: Monday volume by price

from what I understand about Market Profile theory (which is not a whole lot) the market is ready to move once the "bell shaped curve" has formed up in a consolidation zone. Hmmmm.....

Category: Technical Talk
Msg#: 37305
From: konig (Mike Konig)
To: manfred (Manfred Zimmel)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 17:43:57
Subject: Re: alternate

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37309
From: suprben (Ben Marwitz)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 18:34:36
Subject: Tuesday, 10th. . .

Pretty bullish reads still, even though we rallied 1%;
14 total in the Ready to turn Bullish category (17 in RTT Bullish, 3 in RTT Bearish). Shorts were covered and longs taken throughout the low 42's (QQQ); am 70% long but will add more tomorrow if we decline. Instinct is telling me we may decline a little more.

These long positions will most-likely be sold next Monday (16) or Tuesday (17).

Sups

• SuprBen.com

Category: TA
Msg#: 37312
From: deuxsous (Tom Drake)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 19:24:53
Subject: spooz

i've got system buys on SPU1, NDU1. and DJU1. the system is a swing trade generator. prices can go lower after a buy and before a next sell.

short term sentiment is neutral after 7/3's sell. a buy or sell is not dependent on SentOsc although it's nice to have it.

somestime the gif's load better here by erasing the "cgi-bin/i/" from the URL....

Category: Market Predictions
Msg#: 37314
From: robg (robert gura)
To: porter (Porter Johnson)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 20:20:45
Subject: Re: December

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37321
From: tradercrystal (Lorne Henderson)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 20:46:47
Subject: for Goldbugs only : excellent post from Jay Taylor

Notes from Bill Murphy re a letter received by him-

Clawar and I agree completely on this point, that no meaningful change in the long term price of gold will occur until the forces that control it either give up or are forced to give up. A number of things can force them to give up:

"1. Exhaustion of appropriate physical gold stocks used to deliver against losing derivative positions.

"2. Litigation discovery in Howe/GATA. Discovery is a situation that is so fraught with danger for the government that it is difficult to envisage any scenario under which they answer questions or provide documentation.

"3. A plunging stock market which is no longer controllable from the purchase of index futures, a practice which can be seen in real time by examining the bid/ask order flow. During support times the bid is always higher than the ask, a queer proposition indeed.

"4. A series of large bankruptcies which triggers a systemic credit crunch. Motorola, Lucent, Xerox, Finova and Amazon.com might do it. Other combinations could just as well be the trigger.

"The manipulators have shown that they are willing to extract 20% of America¹s gold bullion reserve in order to cap the Washington Agreement rally in late 1999. The transfer of 58 million ounces at the West Point Depository to custodial from Gold Bullion Reserve status has not been explained yet after months of questions. Reasonable people can rightfully conclude that this gold was improperly used in a Federal Reserve swap with a cooperating European bank and sits under an earmark, owned by another entity.

"They were desperate enough to act inappropriately then, we must assume that they will be even more desperate in the future. Perhaps desperate enough to take even more gold bullion from the reserve status......

full text at

http://www.tfc.com/syndication/MarketMavensReport/taylor.html?G=MarketMavensReport&T=Gold%20Market&A=taylor

Category: Astro
Msg#: 37322
From: not_a_random_walk (Dennis Shumaker)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 21:04:43
Subject: Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, Saturn and the moon this July

http://www.cnn.com/2001/TECH/space/07/09/planet.dance/index.html

(CNN) -- Mercury, Venus, Jupiter and Saturn will soon line up
for a cosmic dance that should delight observers all over the
world who look up into the skies before dawn.

The aesthetically intriguing celestial conjunction will include
special appearances by the waning crescent moon.

The mid-July alignment features two sets of planets, Mercury and
Jupiter, and Venus and Saturn, which will be in conjunction
within one week of each other.

The show begins July 12 when Jupiter rises in the northeast
before dawn. Mercury emerges just south of the gas giant,
about one hour before sunrise.

On July 15, Venus creeps over the horizon in the east-northeast,
about three hours before dawn. It appears just south of Saturn,
which also emerges about three hours before dawn, but remains
low in the sky, a few degrees above the northeastern horizon.

In the Southern Hemisphere, Saturn appears slightly higher above
the northeastern horizon at twilight.

The crescent moon will add to the mood, perched above and to the
right of Saturn and Venus. Jupiter and Mercury will hug the
horizon on the left.

On July 17, Venus and Saturn join up with the waning moon. To
the lower left, Jupiter will hang above Mercury.

One day later, near the end of the celestial dance, the moon cuts
in between Venus and Jupiter, while Mercury floats off the lower
left. On July 19, Mercury will appear just above the horizon,
with a thin moon sliver above it.

Category: Technical Talk
Msg#: 37324
From: da_cheif (don wolanchuk)
To: michael (Michael Henry)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 22:05:49
Subject: wat moron said that the stock market was a place

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37325
From: deuxsous (Tom Drake)
To: tradercrystal (Lorne Henderson)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 22:27:12
Subject: Re: for Goldbugs only : excellent post from Jay Taylor

the fact is that the Long Wave of commodity prices has been tilted downwards since the 1970's. that is changing, but not because GATA and the conspiracy folks have banged the drums.

there are always conspiracies, but they don't work unless the market is heading in their direction already, as it was since 21 January 1980.

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37326
From: drak (Mike Drakulich)
To: deuxsous (Tom Drake)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 22:40:07
Subject: Re: for Goldbugs only : excellent post from Jay Taylor

Drak

Drak

Category: Market Predictions
Msg#: 37327
From: david_neeran (David Neeran)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 22:42:44
Subject: Crunch Time, looks ominious, FRIDAY 13th four days away

Markets must finish higher tomorrow or else another mini-crash to SPX 1155, NAZ 1900, DOW- who cares about DOW?
After last week's decline and today's narrow range the hourly & daily charts are perched on the edge, could go either way, but the path of least resistance appears to be down unless the hourly & daily can put some daylight between themselves & the cliff. Got to get away from the edge, looks really bad down there, roadkill, vultures, etc .

But, there is hope if you are long. Corning warning & CSCO earnings could have been limit down under different circumstances but not so tonight; Japan & HK looks steady to slightly up, with Japan recovering nicely last night. Mostly positive ticks during the last 30 minutes today, PCs are still bullish, and there aren't any big earnings & economic reports until PPI, CPI, retail sales on Friday 13th, another horror show looming?

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37329
From: deuxsous (Tom Drake)
To: drak (Mike Drakulich)
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 22:56:31
Subject: Re: for Goldbugs only : excellent post from Jay Taylor

bro. drake

Category: General Interest
Msg#: 37330
From: tradercrystal (Lorne Henderson)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 09, 2001 at 22:56:43
Subject: ES 24 hr Futures Weekly

What we saw Monday was price trapped in the boundaries of a wedge like formation and the market looks ready to move out (see my post on Monday volume by price).
Which way?
It is difficult to read a lot into the price action of last week because of the extremely low volume (arrow). This market looks awful but the surprise move might be "up" based on the volume, the diagonal pattern, and the fact that we tested and held major support in the prev. Globex session.

The diagonal intersects nicely two weekly bars out meaning we could see a price extreme, Hi or Lo, at that point (15-21 cal.days from now).

Category: TA
Msg#: 37336
From: senator (Barry Asato)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 10, 2001 at 00:02:21
Subject: S&P500 for Tuesday July 10

S&P500 Futures:

Current SELL trigger at 1204 (target 1193). The next SELL triggers are at 1199 (target 1176), 1189 (target 1142) and 1171 (target 1159). There is support at 1156 and resistance at 1210.

The nearest BUY trigger is at 1214 (target 1226).

Dow Futures:

The index remains in a downward area. Current down cycle activated at 10944 (target 9600), 10524 (target 10440), 10488 (target 10320), and 10416 (target 10080).

The nearest BUY triggers are at 10356 (target 10440) and 10596 (target 10680).

Nasdaq Futures:

This index is still very weak. Current move is from 1776 (target 1440), and 1848 (target 1680). Other SELL triggers remain close by at 1644 (target 1560), and 1632 (target 960).

BUY trigger at 1716 (target 1800). This trigger had a difficult time on Monday.

Tchau,

BA

Category: TA
Msg#: 37647
From: deuxsous (Tom Drake)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 11, 2001 at 08:15:45
Subject: median line

the andrews/G9 median line or bisect is not drawn arbitrarily. it runs through the precise midpoint of the time-price range. note that this one (1/31-3/22 from 12/21) runs through two major gaps as well, giving it additional power. we shall see quite soon if ms. market is repecting that power.

Category: Market Predictions
Msg#: 37940
From: arch (Arch Crawford)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 12, 2001 at 01:32:07
Subject: SUPER BULLISH

In the July 2 Crawford Perspectives we said:
"Move up to 200% Long using Full Margin"

We believe TODAY was a critically important retracement LOW!

We believe the next few days will see multiple 100's of points gained in the DJIA!

The GOLD looks fabulous.

Arch Crawford

Category: TA
Msg#: 38324
From: da_cheif (don wolanchuk)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 12, 2001 at 23:11:44
Subject: the importance of thursdays high

in the sept spooz at 1217.50.....it nailed the 72 hour ma....and an exact 75%retracement from that hi would fill thurs opening gap....if the gap near 1222 is filled first then a 78.6 retracement will fill thur opening gap....thus it would seem probable that once again the boyz will use friday to try to cool off thursdays excitement.....beyond 1222 1225wouldbe a very pleasant surprise and solidify the idea that the recent decline into the wednesday before the week of expiration was another exercise in inventory control in order to accomodate another massive payday.....at expiration...overall our volume based dj equity model....known as the clx complex is positioned to support a blast to new highs..and beyond....the weekly ad line should accellarate dramaticly in the weeks ahead..

Category: TA
Msg#: 38825
From: madrone (Steve Pfiffner)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 15, 2001 at 11:57:35
Subject: My Favorite Martian

Category: TA
Msg#: 38855
From: larrwane (Larry Tomlinson)
To: ALL
Date Posted: July 15, 2001 at 20:01:44
Subject: Market turn this week?

Greetings,
In December 2000 I forecast 7-20 to 7-23 as the most likely date for wave four from 1974 in the SPX to complete. Reason? We use two cycle methods and the Spiral calendar short- term analysis to arrive at these projected turns. From the annual turn 3 high of 5-22-01Market Charts forecast a weak turn 4 and 5 and a strong down move into Intermediate 6, annual 6 cycle low due 7-23 to 7-31. We expected the 200-day Bollinger band near 1130 to provide the truth since the 5-22 high. Support and we go to 1620 in a rocket ride beginning 7-23-01. Fail and the 1998 lows most likely will be traded below. As of today we must start down from the open Monday or at least stay below 1225 to continue the down- trend into the projected turn of 7-20 to 7-23.

Last week you saw the FED provide liquidity to the markets. If this injection of liquidity can get the SPX above 1240 then odds are we have seen the low for wave (4) at the March 1080 level and are on the way to new highs for the Dow and SPX.

The highest odds are with a lower low to the 1132-1126 levels by weeks end. What happens at this level is critical. The potential for a melt down is still very real. The odds are we rocket up to new highs from there.

Good Luck to all,
Larry T